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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still