🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Made $436,000 from Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Trading information shows that participants estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate. A small number of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Politicians are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on Monday seeks to ban government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events. Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."